Risk Assessment of existing major dams using RPN analysis - A Case Study of Central India region

Abstract

India’s dam safety management has its hands full: most of the country’s big dams are getting old, more people are living downstream, and resources are stretched thin. This research dives into that gap. It creates and tests a new risk assessment framework for gravity dams, mixing two five-factor indices — one for likelihood, one for consequences — to spit out a Risk Priority Number (RPN) for each site.  The framework gets used on eight major dams in Madhya Pradesh state of Central India viz Gandhi Sagar, Indira Sagar, Omkareshwar, Rajghat, Bansagar, Bargi, Tawa, and Barna dam projects. These dams were built during different decades, juggle different construction styles, and face different problems downstream. Together, they store nearly 27,700 MCM of water, irrigate about 2.5 million hectares, and crank out close to 1,700 MW of hydro power.

The Likelihood Index checks out five big things: seepage, spillway capacity for the worst floods, structural strength, foundation quality, and whether the gates and emergency procedures work when they’re needed. Meanwhile, the Consequence Index looks at how many people are at risk downstream, what kind of infrastructure could get hit, warning time in a flood, economic fallout, and how ready the Emergency Action Plan is.  Each factor gets scored from one to five, and the final RPN is just the product of those two indices.

As the result, dams Gandhi Sagar (RPN 10.2), Bargi (RPN 10.1), Tawa (RPN 9.0), and Barna (RPN 9.0) — are flagged for urgent action. Omkareshwar (RPN 7.2) comes in as moderate priority, while Indira Sagar (RPN 5.8) rates lower on structural risk but needs serious attention for consequence management because so many people live downstream. A few stand-out takeaways: older dams are more vulnerable structurally, but age doesn’t always line up with overall risk for society. Inadequate spillways are the most urgent structural concern across all six dams. The weakest piece of consequence management is EAP readiness, but fixing that is actually the most cost-effective move right now. The dissertation wraps up with tailored, step-by-step recommendations for each dam, plus advice to Madhya Pradesh’s dam safety program: start using risk-based asset management.