Divergent Glacier Behaviour in the Pamir-Karakoram Region: Mass-Balance Anomalies, Surge Dynamics, and Downstream Hazard Implications

Abstract

The glaciers of the Pamir and Karakoram ranges depart from the global pattern of climate-driven retreat, remaining close to balance or even gaining mass over the past two to three decades, a phenomenon widely termed the “Karakoram Anomaly.” This review synthesizes recent geodetic, remote sensing, and glaciological literature to characterize the spatial structure of this anomaly, the widespread occurrence of glacier surging in the region, and the downstream hazards posed by these dynamics. Evidence indicates that anomalous stability is concentrated in the western and central Karakoram and the Western Kunlun, while the Pamir and eastern Karakoram have recently shifted toward pronounced mass loss, consistent with a proposed west-to-east migration of the anomaly under continued regional warming. The Karakoram–Pamir region also hosts one of the two global super-clusters of surge-type glaciers, with well-documented links between surge cycles, ice-dammed lake formation, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that threaten transboundary populations and infrastructure. This paper synthesizes published mass-balance estimates, surge inventories, and hazard assessments, and discusses implications for regional water resources and hazard management under projected future warming.