Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Land Use Land Cover Change and Climate Variability in the Kaddam Dam Watershed and Command Area (1985–2025), Telangana, India.

Abstract

Dams play a critical role in water storage for drinking, irrigation, and groundwater recharge; however, inadequate periodic assessment can increase the risk of structural failure and severe socio-economic impacts due to flooding. This study presents a spatio-temporal analysis of land use and land cover (LULC) change and climate variability in the Kaddam Dam watershed, located in Nirmal district, Telangana, India. The watershed forms a tributary of the Godavari River and supports extensive irrigation through its command area.

Multi-temporal Landsat multispectral datasets (Landsat-5, Landsat-8, and Landsat-9) from 1985 to 2025 at five-year intervals were used to analyze LULC dynamics using supervised classification techniques in a GIS environment. The results reveal a substantial expansion of built-up land, increasing nearly fivefold across the watershed during the study period, indicating rapid urbanization and land conversion. Water bodies exhibited an approximately 2.5-fold increase, with a pronounced rise after 2020. An expansion of Bare land was also observed, leading to the reduction of cropland, dense vegetation, and wetland areas.

Within the dam command area, built-up land increased nearly four times between 1985 and 2025, while water bodies expanded by approximately 6.5 times, significantly impacting other land-use classes. The increase in water bodies along watershed boundaries is attributed to the influence of the Godavari River and the presence of additional hydraulic structures within the basin. Climate analysis using historical and projected World Clim datasets indicates a declining rainfall trend of approximately 70 mm and a projected increase in mean temperature of about 1°C over the study period.

The overall classification accuracy achieved was 84%, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.88, demonstrating reliable LULC classification. The findings highlight the combined influence of anthropogenic activities and climate variability on watershed dynamics and emphasize the need for sustainable land-use planning and integrated watershed management to ensure long-term dam safety and water resource sustainability.